Dear All,
I have uploaded all the presentations from OUA&T Workshop at the IRI wiki page, from where these can be accessed by anyone.
Please check the link given below and in certain cases of inconvenience, please feel free to contact me.
The link of the wikipage is-
http://wiki.iri.columbia.edu/index.php?n=ERFS.AgRiskWorkshop2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Thursday, May 13, 2010
How to read Probabilistic forecast
Probabilistic forecast is made in three categories viz. Below Normal, Near Normal and Above normal. These categories are based on the previous year’s observed data set (IMD’s gridded data). The model and observed data sets are normalized to have zero mean and one standard deviation before subjecting to any analysis. As the mean is shifted to zero and standard deviation changed to unity the bounds for the categories become as follows.
Below Normal category: -infinity to -0.43
Near Normal category: -0.43 to 0.43
Above normal category: 0.43 to infinity
e.g. if we get 20% below normal 30% Normal and 50% above normal means there are 50% chances that the rainfall will be more than 0.43 (Above Normal) at the same time there are 20% chances to get rainfall less than -0.43 (Below Normal) and 30% chances of getting rainfall in the near normal category, thus in this example it becomes wet forecast.
KINDLY LET ME KNOW IF I HAVE WRITTEN SOMETHING WRONG
Below Normal category: -infinity to -0.43
Near Normal category: -0.43 to 0.43
Above normal category: 0.43 to infinity
e.g. if we get 20% below normal 30% Normal and 50% above normal means there are 50% chances that the rainfall will be more than 0.43 (Above Normal) at the same time there are 20% chances to get rainfall less than -0.43 (Below Normal) and 30% chances of getting rainfall in the near normal category, thus in this example it becomes wet forecast.
KINDLY LET ME KNOW IF I HAVE WRITTEN SOMETHING WRONG
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Recommendations of the OUA&T Workshop (April 12-17, 2010)
Workshop on
Climate Risk Management in Agriculture
held from 12th to 17th April 2010
(O.U.A.&T. Bhubaneswar)
Recommendations
1. The ERFS experimental products are in use to generate climate based agro advisories for 9 selected Agricultural Universities and additional explanatory notes may be provided.
2. An ERFS website may be created and hosted in cooperation with IMD.
3. Daily climatology of temperature and rainfall for all the 9 subdivisions and a few selected stations of respective meteorological subdivision may be prepared and made available through ERFS website.
4. ERFS experimental products along with operational short and medium range weather forecasts may be made available through single window by IMD to integrate the products for improvement of the quality of the agro advisories at 9 experimental sites.
5. Weather based research outputs already available with these 9 Agricultural Universities / ICAR institutes may be exploited for linking with the climate information as well as forecast for decision support system for framing the agro advisories. The same information may also be made available through the ERFS website.
6. Each demonstration site should identify and prepare the climate risk matrix for the selected crops.
7. Based on the risk matrix, special forecast on weather extremes related to rainfall and temperature may be provided.
8. Attempts may be made to develop linkage between meteorological subdivision and specific station climatology in relation to rainfall and temperature.
9. There is need to develop crop and location specific climate risk management tools.
Climate Risk Management in Agriculture
held from 12th to 17th April 2010
(O.U.A.&T. Bhubaneswar)
Recommendations
1. The ERFS experimental products are in use to generate climate based agro advisories for 9 selected Agricultural Universities and additional explanatory notes may be provided.
2. An ERFS website may be created and hosted in cooperation with IMD.
3. Daily climatology of temperature and rainfall for all the 9 subdivisions and a few selected stations of respective meteorological subdivision may be prepared and made available through ERFS website.
4. ERFS experimental products along with operational short and medium range weather forecasts may be made available through single window by IMD to integrate the products for improvement of the quality of the agro advisories at 9 experimental sites.
5. Weather based research outputs already available with these 9 Agricultural Universities / ICAR institutes may be exploited for linking with the climate information as well as forecast for decision support system for framing the agro advisories. The same information may also be made available through the ERFS website.
6. Each demonstration site should identify and prepare the climate risk matrix for the selected crops.
7. Based on the risk matrix, special forecast on weather extremes related to rainfall and temperature may be provided.
8. Attempts may be made to develop linkage between meteorological subdivision and specific station climatology in relation to rainfall and temperature.
9. There is need to develop crop and location specific climate risk management tools.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Welcome to the ERFS Blog
Dear Sir/ Madam,
Let me take this opportunity to invite you in this blog which is dedicated to discuss various issues related to the project entitled "Extended Range Forecast System for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture". All of you are invited to share your views regarding this project.
Let me take this opportunity to invite you in this blog which is dedicated to discuss various issues related to the project entitled "Extended Range Forecast System for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture". All of you are invited to share your views regarding this project.
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